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Exposure Component

Exposure is represented as age-stratified population counts on the same reference grid as the hazard (~100 m, EPSG:3035).


Age groups

Three age groups are distinguished throughout the framework, reflecting the heterogeneous heat-mortality response across the life course:

Group ID Age range Rationale
1 < 15 Children — lowest heat-mortality sensitivity
2 15–64 Working-age adults
3 65+ Older adults — highest heat-mortality sensitivity (~20× steeper dose-response than group 2 at 40°C)

Baseline population (2020 and 2030)

  • Source: WorldPop high-resolution age-structured rasters.
  • Age-structured rasters are downloaded for each of the three groups and reprojected to the UrbClim reference grid using a conservative summation scheme that preserves total population counts when resampling.

Future population (2040 and 2050)

The 2030 spatial population pattern is retained as the fine-resolution anchor and scaled cell-by-cell by age-group-specific national growth factors from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WCDE) database.

Available demographic scenarios:

Scenario Description
SSP1 Sustainability
SSP2 Middle of the road
SSP3 Regional rivalry
SSP4 Inequality
SSP5 Fossil-fuelled development
SSP2-DM High migration variant
SSP2-ZM Zero migration variant

This approach preserves within-city spatial distribution while applying SSP-consistent total changes at the national level, without imposing unsupported within-city spatial redistribution assumptions.


CLIMADA Exposures object

Attribute Value
Rows One per populated grid cell × age group
value field Number of people (that age group, that cell)
impf_T2M field Age-group-specific impact function ID (1, 2, or 3)
Zero-population rows Excluded for compactness

The city analysis mask — the intersection of the FUA boundary and cells with non-zero total population — is computed once and reused by all downstream components.

Age-structured population grids are prepared and harmonised in NB02; the CLIMADA Exposures objects (baseline and future scenario/year) are assembled in NB03, which also attaches the projected SVI value to each exposure point and writes the year/scenario-specific exposure_with_vulnerability files consumed by NB04–NB08 (see Vulnerability).


Input summary

Input / Parameter Source Notes
Population 2020 and 2030 WorldPop age-structured rasters Conservative reprojection to 100 m grid
Age groups < 15, 15–64, 65+ Three groups used throughout framework
Future scaling (2040, 2050) WCDE / Wittgenstein Centre Age-specific, SSP-consistent
Population scenarios SSP1–5, SSP2-DM, SSP2-ZM Multiple demographic pathways
Spatial domain GHS-FUA ∩ populated cells City analysis mask
CLIMADA impf_T2M Age-group IDs 1, 2, 3 Links rows to age-specific impact functions

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