Exposure Component¶
Exposure is represented as age-stratified population counts on the same reference grid as the hazard (~100 m, EPSG:3035).
Age groups¶
Three age groups are distinguished throughout the framework, reflecting the heterogeneous heat-mortality response across the life course:
| Group ID | Age range | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | < 15 | Children — lowest heat-mortality sensitivity |
| 2 | 15–64 | Working-age adults |
| 3 | 65+ | Older adults — highest heat-mortality sensitivity (~20× steeper dose-response than group 2 at 40°C) |
Baseline population (2020 and 2030)¶
- Source: WorldPop high-resolution age-structured rasters.
- Age-structured rasters are downloaded for each of the three groups and reprojected to the UrbClim reference grid using a conservative summation scheme that preserves total population counts when resampling.
Future population (2040 and 2050)¶
The 2030 spatial population pattern is retained as the fine-resolution anchor and scaled cell-by-cell by age-group-specific national growth factors from the Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (WCDE) database.
Available demographic scenarios:
| Scenario | Description |
|---|---|
| SSP1 | Sustainability |
| SSP2 | Middle of the road |
| SSP3 | Regional rivalry |
| SSP4 | Inequality |
| SSP5 | Fossil-fuelled development |
| SSP2-DM | High migration variant |
| SSP2-ZM | Zero migration variant |
This approach preserves within-city spatial distribution while applying SSP-consistent total changes at the national level, without imposing unsupported within-city spatial redistribution assumptions.
CLIMADA Exposures object¶
| Attribute | Value |
|---|---|
| Rows | One per populated grid cell × age group |
value field |
Number of people (that age group, that cell) |
impf_T2M field |
Age-group-specific impact function ID (1, 2, or 3) |
| Zero-population rows | Excluded for compactness |
The city analysis mask — the intersection of the FUA boundary and cells with non-zero total population — is computed once and reused by all downstream components.
Age-structured population grids are prepared and harmonised in NB02; the CLIMADA Exposures objects (baseline and future scenario/year) are assembled in NB03, which also attaches the projected SVI value to each exposure point and writes the year/scenario-specific exposure_with_vulnerability files consumed by NB04–NB08 (see Vulnerability).
Input summary¶
| Input / Parameter | Source | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Population 2020 and 2030 | WorldPop age-structured rasters | Conservative reprojection to 100 m grid |
| Age groups | < 15, 15–64, 65+ | Three groups used throughout framework |
| Future scaling (2040, 2050) | WCDE / Wittgenstein Centre | Age-specific, SSP-consistent |
| Population scenarios | SSP1–5, SSP2-DM, SSP2-ZM | Multiple demographic pathways |
| Spatial domain | GHS-FUA ∩ populated cells | City analysis mask |
CLIMADA impf_T2M |
Age-group IDs 1, 2, 3 | Links rows to age-specific impact functions |
This page is maintained in the URBADAPT-HEAT wiki and synced automatically. Edit it there, not in the website repository.